基于系统科学的中国粮食安全评价研究

ASSESSMENT OF THE FOOD SECURITY IN CHINA BASED ON SYSTEM SCIENCE

中国的粮食安全问题不仅关系着国家发展,也影响着世界粮食市场。该文采用系统论的方法,将粮食安全系统分解为自然系统、支撑系统和调配系统3个子系统,以存在性、自由性、有效性、稳定性、适应性作为基础指示器,分析评价粮食系统中各个环节的安全脆弱因子及其相互作用机制,并建立其评价指标体系和区域粮食安全系统安全评价模型。在此基础上,以县级行政区为研究单位,建立中国区域粮食安全评估基本方法体系,确定了中国粮食安全的脆弱环节和脆弱因子,主要表现在农业生产效率低下不稳定、农业投入和基础建设不足、粮食调配效率低等方面,并呈现比较明显的空间分异特征。

The food security of China greatly impacted on not only the national development but also the interna- tional food markets. Based on the method of system science, this paper provided an assessment method on the re- gional food security system. The food security system was divided into natural, support and deployment sub - sys- tems, and the existence, freedom, effectively, stability, adaptability were selected as the basic indicators to quanti- tatively analyze the key factors and interaction mechanism in such systems. Based on the statistical data of all coun- ties in China, the regional food security evaluation systems were set up to assess the vulnerable factors of regional food security and spatial distribution. The main vulnerable factors were identified as the unstable agriculture pro- duction, the insufficient investment, and the ineffective food redeployment.