中国天然气市场演变及其保障研究

Research on the SNA-based Evolution and Security of Natural Gas Market in China

随着我国天然气市场快速发展,覆盖全国的天然气管网初具雏形。针对天然气供需缺口问题,文章利用社会网络分析方法(SNA)分析我国天然气市场贸易关系的经验特征和演变规律。分析结果表明:管网的建设推动了天然气市场网络的聚集,市场呈现出中西部资源产地和东部消费地的中心性特征。我国天然气市场经历了零散市场向区域市场乃至全国性大市场的演变,市场关联度从2000年的0.012 7上升至2011年的0.107 2。我国应着手建设以下管道,使管网布局更趋合理:华北区的山东建设和北京、山西、内蒙直通的管道,修建以山东为终点的大型管线,辅之以储气库建设;东北区的辽宁建设和黑龙江直通的管道;华东区建设新疆-浙江管道;华中区的湖北建设储气库和直通江西的管道;华南区的建设新疆-广东管道;西南区建设中缅管道;西北区建设联络线完善管道互通。

With the rapid development of China＇ s natural gas market, the prototype of nationwide gas pipeline network has formed. Aiming at the gap between supply and demand, this paper employs social network analysis to explore the empirical characteristics of regional relationship and the evolution of the natural gas market. The resuhs show that： the pipeline construction brings network of natural gas market together, which makes midwestern areas being production source and eastern coast areas being consumption center in the market. China＇s natural gas market has experienced the change from fragmented market to regional market even to nationwide market. Market correlation grew from 0. 012 7 in 2000 to 0. 107 2 in 2011. We should build such pipeline projects to make the network of natural gas market more reasonable：In north China we construct branch pipelines in Shandong connecting with Beijing, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, and make a natural gas mainline that ends at Shandong where a new gas storage will be build. In eastnorth China we construct a pipeline in Liaoning connecting with Heilongjiang directly. In east China we construct a new Xinjiang-Zhejiang mainline. In central China we construct a Hubei-Jiangxi pipeline and a new gas storage in Hubei. In south China we construct Xinjiang-Guangdong mainline. In westsouth China we construct China-Myanmar mainline. In westnorth China we construct contact-lines to make pipes more interoperable.