外汇储备累积、货币被动创造与经济转型升级

Accumulated Foreign Exchange Reserves,Currency to Create Passively and Economic Transforming and Upgrading

以2001年第1季度至2011年第4季度作为研究区间,使用协整理论实证分析外汇储备不断累积对中国经济转型升级影响的结果表明,当前巨额外汇储备不利于经济发展方式的转变,主要原因在于外汇储备增长的背后所体现的是粗放型、低效的出口创汇形式;外汇占款过多投放以后所施行的对冲操作不利于具有高新技术的中小企业的融资活动,造成这些企业在缺乏资金的情况下逐步丧失市场竞争力。因此,应以外汇储备的战略化使用促进实体经济生产效能的提高;设立外汇平准基金,使外汇占款的投放不再成为基础货币发行的主要手段;通过金融创新,利用外汇储备较多的优势,使得面临转型升级的企业便捷、低成本地获得信贷资金,以提高其国际竞争力;积极推进人民币的国际化,借以改变外汇储备的生成方式,进而将其对经济结构转型的抑制作用变为积极推动作用。

We choose the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2011 as our research range ,using the cointegration theory to analyze what will happen to the upgrading of China＇s economic transformation due to foreign exchange reserves continuing to accumulate. The results show that the huge foreign exchange reserves are not conducive to the change in the pattern of economic development. The main reason is that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves reflects an extensive and inefficient form of export. It is not conducive to high -tech small and medium enterprises to take part in financing activities. As a result, these enterprises gradually lose the competitiveness owing to lack of funds. So, we think we had better use the foreign exchange reserves strategically to promote the production of the real economy effficiently,set up the Exchange Stabilization Funds, make the launch of the foreign exchange no longer the primary means of base money issuance, and with financial innovation, we had better take advantages of foreign exchange reserves,make sure they can get access to credit funds but they just need to pay low interests, as a result they can gradually improve their international competitiveness. Meanwhile ,we should promote the internationalization of the RMB ,in order to change the foreign exchange reserves,thus it can become a positive role in promoting economic restructuring.