商品期现价格联动与局部套期保值决策——基于上海期货市场的实证研究

Comovement of Commodities Cash and Futures Prices and Partial Hedging ——The Empirical Research Based on Shanghai Futures Market

以上海金属网长江现货和上海期货交易所铜、铝和锌期货等价格数据为基础,实证分析商品市场价格异常波动及期现价格联动非对称相关结构对企业套期保值决策的影响。研究发现,商品市场期现价格联动相关结构的影响因素纷繁复杂,路径依赖、历史基差、随机冲击及历史信息变量等均可能对其有显著影响;且较全局策略、局部策略下套期保值成本有明显下降,套保组合收益与组合方差比值有显著上升,从而大幅改善商品期货市场套期保值效果。

According to abnormal volatility of commodities market prices and asymmetric tail dependence ,partial hedging strategy will be constructed based on Copula-GARCH model by Rotated Gumbel function. The empirical study of SHFE metal futures shows that, firstly,the influences factors of Comovement of Commodities Cash and Futures Prices are complicated ,and include path dependence, historical basis, impulse response, and historical information variable ; secondly, partial hedging strategy will help reduce the cost of hedging, and hedging effectiveness will be improved.