狱内又犯罪预测的“三段论”原理探析

Exploration of "syllogism" principle of crime prediction within the prison

在监狱工作贯彻落实"首要标准"的大背景下,如何最大限度地控制狱内又犯罪的发生,一直是监管安全工作的主题和侧重点。监狱若要从根本上控制和预防狱内又犯罪,必须把脉服刑罪犯在监狱内"罪前、罪中和罪后"三个阶段的犯罪心理和行为特点,尤其是从已然的类型犯罪中找出一般性的规律,研究狱内又犯罪的罪前特征,预测狱内又犯罪的发展走势,从而形成对狱内又犯罪"查、控、打"的综合扼制态势,这样才能使预防、控制和侦破工作真正做到有的放矢。犯罪预测是犯罪预防的基础,缺少犯罪预测的犯罪预防是没有任何现实意义的。

In the context of implementing the ＂primary standard＂ of prison work,how to maximize control the crime occurred within the prison,has been the theme and focus of the regulatory safety work.If the prison want to fundamentally control and prevent the crime within the prison,must know the criminal psychology and behavioral characteristics of the three stages——＂before,during and after the crime＂——of criminals in prison,in particular,look for a general rule from the crimes,study the characteristics before the crime within the prison and predict the development trend,thus form a trend of ＂investigation,control and hit＂,so as to successfully make the prevention,control and detective work.Crime prediction is the basis of crime prevention,without that,the crime prevention is not in any realistic sense.