减速与调整：全球宏观经济形势研判

Slowing Down and Adjustment:Assessment on Global Economic Situation

全球经济虽在2010年较快苏复,然而随着各国刺激经济措施不同程度退出或力度减弱,最近两年全球经济呈现增速回落态势:美国经济方向感暂失;欧洲经济处于双重危机之下;日本经济稳态低增长趋势难改;资源出口国的增长受制于商品景气行情;中国经济目前虽然有较大选择能动性,但也面临减速调整。中国需要趁势调整,力推改革,培育自主性景气增长基础。

Albeit with the quick recovery in 2010,the growth of the global economy has been slowing down in the last two years due to the exit or weakening of stimulus measures in major economies.The US economic recovery is weak as a result of lost direction,the EU economy was troubled by a sovereign debt crisis for some eurozone member countries complicated by the weakness of the single currency,the Japanese economy is out of steam due to structural factors,the growth of major resource-export economies was constrained by low confidence in the commodity markets and,although China has great potential to sustain high growth in the long run,its economic growth has also slowed down recently.China should adopt modest proactive macroeconomic measures but avoid another round of strong stimulus policies.On the other hand,China needs to give high priority to adjustment and reform to pave the way for a new sustainable boom in the future.