中国应从“人口红利”转向“制度红利”

China:From Demographic Dividend to Institutional Dividend

尽管20世纪80年代的制度创新曾经极大地释放了中国经济的活力,但由于近二十年制度创新减缓,中国经济增长仍然主要依靠"人口红利"驱动的粗放式增长模式,这与既定的政策目标是冲突的。这种模式是不可持续的,因为它面临多种因素的制约。即便在短期内继续拥有人口红利,如果制度质量较低或者交易费用较高,中国在国际贸易中的获利也会低于传统国际贸易理论的预期,并且在某些条件下可能低于贸易前的福利水平。中国必须摆脱对人口红利的依赖,通过深化政治和经济体制改革获得"制度红利",以进一步释放经济增长动力,实现可持续发展。

Although institutional change in the 1980s contributed tremendously to China’s rapid economic growth,since then the 'demographic dividend' that underpins the quantity-based extensive growth has remained the main engine for China’s economic growth over the past two decades.While it is against current policy targets,this type of extensive growth mode is unsustainable because it is set to suffer from binding constraints such as the decline in the size of the working population,insufficient supply of energy,serious pollution of the environment and increasing trade friction.Even if China can maintain its demographic dividend in the short term,its benefits from international trade will be less than expected based on traditional trade theories and,in some circumstances,might even be less than the pre-trade level if China’s institutional quality remains low or transaction costs continue to be high.In the long term,China must shake off its dependence on its 'demographic dividend' and obtain an 'institutional dividend' through deepened political and economic institutional reforms so that it can further unleash its economic growth potential to cross the 'middle income trap' and maintain sustainable growth.