资源、环境不构成人口增长的硬约束

Resource and Environment Will not Impose Hard Constraint on Population

世界耕地、淡水、矿产、能源等分布极不均匀,中国人均低于世界平均水平并不意味着不足。如果中国亩产增加到美国、荷兰现在的水平,那么粮食还将分别增加30%、70%。人口增加,对现有的资源只是"减法"地消耗;但更重要的却是"乘法"地使"非资源"(如氮气)变为新的资源(如氮肥)。"人口多导致环境污染"被过于夸大,发达国家由于发展模式的转变和监管机制的完善,环境反而更好。根据社会发展水平判断,即便停止计划生育并鼓励生育,中国人口也很难达到14亿,今后资源、环境等问题,主要是满足既定人口生活水平提高的需求。

The distribution of the world’s arable land,fresh water and mineral and energy resources is unequal and is not necessarily relevant to a given country.China’s smaller ownership of resources per capita does not imply that China is short of resources.If China’s grain yield per hectare reaches the current level of the United States or the Netherlands,its grain output will increase by 30 percent and 70 percent respectively.Population growth brings about an increase in consumption of the existing resources but only in an additive way.More importantly,the transformation of new resources from non-resources,such as nitrogenous fertilizer extracted from the air(nitrogen),occurs in a multiplicative way.Overpopulation as a cause of increased environmental pollution has been much exaggerated.A clean environment is common in developed countries due to changes in their economic development mode and strong institutional regulatory oversight.Even if China immediately terminated its current population control policy and encouraged fertility,it would be very unlikely for China ’ s population to reach 1.4 billion.Consequently the issue now is how to protect the environment and develop new resources to satisfy the demand from the improved living standards of the existing Chinese population.