人民币升值、企业行为与出口贸易--基于大样本企业数据的实证研究：2005～2009

The Appreciation of RMB, the Behavior of Firms and the Export Trade: A Case Study Based on the Enterprise Data of a Large Specimen between 2005 and 2009

本文建立了一个简化的动态离散选择模型，在利润最大化框架下分析企业出口的两阶段决策行为和汇率因素的作用，并以2005～2009年间中国工业企业的样本数据，采用Heckman选择模型评估人民币升值对出口贸易的整体影响和结构影响。研究表明，人民币升值从集约边际和扩展边际两方面对企业出口产生了显著的负面冲击。与此同时，由于异质性企业在经营策略上的差异，导致人民币升值难以起到优胜劣汰的预期效果，反而不利于出口贸易主体结构的优化调整。人民币升值在一定程度上驱动出口行业结构朝着高级化方向发展，但这种积极作用主要来源于外资企业的贡献，却限制了先进制造业中本土企业的成长空间。在国内外经济不确定性较高的环境下，为保障经济转型的平稳过渡，应暂缓人民币升值的步伐，改以其他更具针对性的政策措施来推动出口贸易升级和经济结构调整。

In this article,we have constructed a simplified dynamic discrete choice model to analyze,within the framework of the maximization of profit,the two-stage decision of firm's export behavior and the effect of the exchange rate.We have,by the means of the specimen data on China's industrial enterprises between 2005 and 2009 and by the use of Heckman selection model,evaluated the general impact of the appreciation of RMB(AORMB) on the export trade and the structural impact.The results of our study indicate that the AORMB has generated significant negative shock to firm's export through extensive margins and intensive margins.Meanwhile,the difference in operation strategy of heteroge neous firms has resulted in the fact that the AORMB can hardly achieve the expected purpose of the survival of the fit test;instead it has interrupted the optimization of the adjustment in the optimization of the structure of the main body of the export trade.The AORMB has,in a certain degree,driven the industry structure of export to develop to a higher phase.However,such positive effects have mainly rooted in the contribution of foreign-funded enterprises,but this pos itive role has restricted the growth space of the local enterprises in the advanced manufacturing industry.Under the cir cumstance of high uncertainty in foreign and domestic economy,in order to guarantee the steady transition of the eco nomic transition,the AORMB should be slowed for the time being,and other more pertinent measures should be adopt ed to drive the upgrade of the export trade and the adjustment of economic structure.