财政支出、土地财政与房地产投机泡沫--基于省际面板数据的测算与实证

Fiscal Expenditure,Land Finance and Housing Price Bubble——Measurement and Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文在对全国30个省份房地产市场投机泡沫进行测算的基础上,采用系统GMM方法分析了财政因素对房地产投机泡沫的影响。研究发现,在房地产市场上,我国绝大多数省份都从2003年起开始出现明显的投机泡沫,且各地的泡沫均从2005年开始出现剧增的情形。随后,以财政支出和土地财政为重点的对影响房地产投机泡沫变化的财政因素进行的实证研究表明,土地财政已成为当前我国房地产投机泡沫积累起来的重要原因。

Based on the measurement of housing bubbles of 30 provinces of China, this paper analyzes the impact of financial factors on speculative bubbles with the system GMM method. The study finds that, in the real estate market, the housing bubbles of most provinces emerged in 2003, and had experienced a sharp increase since 2005. Subsequently, empirical studies focusing on fiscal expenditure and land finance also show that land.finance has become an important reason for accumulating of current housing bubbles in China.