锁定效应与中国代工产业升级--基于制造业分行业面板数据的经验研究

Lock-in Effect and Subcontracting Industrial Upgrading in China——An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of Manufacturing Industries

以代工模式嵌入全球价值链,是后进国家实现工业化的有效战略和重要途径,但可能因锁定效应而不利于经济可持续发展与产业升级。本文首先从投入、需求与功能三个维度将代工产业的锁定效应分解为要素锁定效应、市场锁定效应和价值链锁定效应,进而利用2001-2008年中国制造业分行业面板数据,实证研究了国际代工模式下不同要素密集型产业的锁定效应。结果显示:劳动密集型制造业表现出要素锁定效应和市场锁定效应,资本密集型、技术密集型制造业则兼具上述三种锁定效应;外资代工促成了劳动密集型制造业的锁定效应,全球价值链分工因素对资本密集型制造业具有"双刃剑"作用,对技术密集型制造业则具有显著的锁定效应;工资水平对劳动密集型制造业的锁定效应具有显著影响,资本密集型制造业的锁定效应与工资水平、规模经济和创新强度显著相关,技术密集型制造业的锁定效应则受到创新强度和外部制度因素的显著影响。本文结论意味着不同类型的产业升级应当采取差异化的政策措施。

Joining Global Value Chain （GVC） with subcontracting mode is an effective strategy and important way of industrialization for latecomers, but may go against sustainable economic development and industrial upgrading due to lock-in effect. With the three dimensions of input, demand and function, the paper decomposes the lock-in effect of subcontracting industries into factor lock-in effect, market lock--in effect and the value chain lock-in effect. Lock-in effects of different factor-intensive industries with international subcontracting are empirically studied by using the panel data of Chinese manufacturing industries from 2001 to 2008. The results show that： （1） Labor-intensive manufacturing reflects factor/market lock-in effect, while capital- intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing manifest the above three types of lock-in effect. （2））FDI subcontracting brings the lock-in effect of labor-intensive manufacturing, while GVC division may cut both ways on capital-intensive manufacturing and an obvious lock-in effect on technology-intensive manufacturing. （3） Wage level significantly influences the lock-in effect of labor-intensive manufacturing, while lock-in effect of capital-intensive manufacturing is significantly correlated with wage level, economies of scale, and innovation intensity, and that of technology-intensive manufacturing is significantly affected by innovation intensity and external institutional factors. The eonclusion means that differentiated policies and countermeasures should be enacted for different types of industrial upgrading.