中国外贸增长质量的评价指标构建与实证研究

Evaluation Indicators and Empirical Research of the Quality of Foreign Trade Growth of China

我国外贸高速增长主要是靠数量扩张实现的,这种粗放式增长方式已难以为继,提高我国外贸增长质量迫在眉睫。然而,目前国内还没有一套评价指标体系可以对外贸增长质量进行全面、客观的评价。这样,提高外贸增长质量就容易成为一个空洞的概念。有鉴于此,本文建立了一套外贸增长质量的评价指标体系,并在此基础上构建了实证分析模型,对我国外贸增长质量及其影响因素进行分析。本文的研究表明,20世纪90年代以来,我国外贸增长质量总体呈现不断改善的趋势;技术进步、人力资本、制度创新与产业结构对我国外贸增长质量有积极影响。

The high-speed growth of Chinese foreign trade based on scale expansion is unsustainable, hence it is extremely urgent to improve the quality of Chinese foreign trade growth. Because there arent any indicators that can objectively evaluate the quality, the improvement on the quality will be an empty talk. Therefore, this paper attempts to build an evaluation indicators system and model. The quality and influencing factors are empirically analyzed. The research results are as follows： （1） Generally, the quality of Chinese foreign trade growth had been improved since 1990; （2） Institutional innovation, technological progress, human capital and industrial structure have remarkably positive effects on the quality.