湿润地区中小河流山洪预报方法研究与应用

Forecasting methods for flash floods in medium and small rivers in humid regions and their applications

针对湿润地区中小河流,提出2套山洪预报方案:一是对于有资料地区,建立基于新安江模型的山洪预报方案;二是对于无资料或资料缺乏地区,采用API-Nash模型,即采用降雨-径流经验相关法进行产流预报,采用Nash模型进行汇流预报。以皖南山区屯溪流域为例,分别用2套方案对流域的次洪过程进行模拟。研究结果表明:2套方案均取得良好的应用效果,洪量合格率比较一致;对于洪峰合格率和确定性系数,新安江模型的模拟结果优于API-Nash模型。

Two methods were adopted in this study to forecast flash floods in medium and small rivers in humid regions： the Xin＇anjiang model was applied to areas with sufficient historical data,and the API-Nash model,in which the rainfall-runoff relationship method is used for runoff yield forecasting and the Nash runoff model is used for flow concentration forecasting,was applied to ungaged areas or data-deficient regions.A case study was conducted in the Tunxi Watershed in the mountainous area of southern Anhui Province,using the two models to simulate flood processes in the watershed.The results show that both models had favorable simulation results.They presented similar accuracy in calculating the qualified rate of the flood volume,and the Xin＇anjiang model had higher accuracy than the API-Nash model in calculating the qualified rate of the flow peak and the deterministic coefficient.