欧洲主权债务危机中主权信用评级的非理性研究

An Irrational Study on Sovereign Credit Rating for European Sovereign Debt Crisis

欧洲主权债务危机爆发以来,三大评级机构频繁下调欧元区国家的主权信用评级,这在某种程度上催化了危机的蔓延。通过对主权信用评级的决定因素分析,将主权信用评级结果分解为由经济基本面因素决定和经济基本面以外因素决定的两部分,研究了主权信用评级结果受非理性成分的影响程度,从而得出了欧债危机期间三大评级机构很可能过度下调了主权信用评级的结论。

Since the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis, three major credit rating agencies frequently have lowered the sovereign credit ratings in the Euro - area countries, which accelerated the spread of the crisis to some extent. Through an analysis of the determinants of the sovereign credit ratings, sovereign credit rating effect can be classified into two parts determined by economic fundamentals factors and by other factors. On the basis of a research on the impact of the irrational elements upon sovereign credit rating resuhs, the paper draws a conclusion that major rating agencies during the debt crisis are likely to overcut the sovereign credit ratings.