美元“过度特权”与美元外汇储备

On "Over-privileged" US Dollars and USD Foreign Exchange Reserves

美元储备资产具有极高的安全性和流动性,并在可预见的短期内不会出现供给不足困扰,不过投资回报却相当低。对美元外汇储备收益率的测算表明,美元"过度特权"确实降低了收益率,但程度非常有限;新兴经济体持有美元外汇储备所面临的两难困境——外汇储备积聚越多,以本国购买力计价的单位外汇储备收益率越低——应主要归因于汇率价值损失效应。通过构建一个理论模型用以解释其原因,结论认为,国际货币体系改革对改变这一现状的作用事实上并不高,对新兴经济体而言,务实和有效的策略包括,一方面改变以出口为导向的经济增长方式,另一方面改变持有外汇储备的动机。

U.S. dollar reserve assets are characterized by high security and liquidity, and no insufficient supply problem in the foreseeable short term, but the return on investment is quite low. The yield estimates against the U. S. dollar foreign exchange reservesshow that the ＂over privileged＂ U.S. dollar does reduce the yield rates, but to a very limited extent ; the dilemma faced by emerging economies that are holders of dollar reserves - the more for- eign exchange reserves are accumulated, the lower the rate of return on foreign exchange reserves denominated by their purchasing power units is, should be mainly contributed to value loss effect of the exchange rate. Through building a theoretical model to explain its reasons, a conclusion is made that the reform of the international monetary system to change this situation does not,~ in fact, work well, and that practical and effective strategies for emerging economies include, on the one hand, changing the export - oriented economic growth mode, on the other hand, to change the motives to hold foreign reserves.