基于灰色理论的湖南粮食生产发展因素影响力评价

Evaluation on the Impact of Factors of the Development of Grain Production in Hunan Province Based on the Gray Theory

为了了解"十二五"期间湖南省粮食生产能力发展态势,促进湖南省粮食生产的可持续发展。采用灰色理论,建立了湖南省粮食生产发展因素影响力评价模型,对湖南省粮食生产发展主要影响因素的影响力进行了评价。结果表明:2003—2010年间,湖南省粮食生产发展的7个主要因素对粮食总产量的关联度从高到低依次排序为:化肥施用量、播种面积、农机总动力、有效灌溉面积、农业用电量、农业劳动力、成灾面积;在现有发展基础上,"十二五"期间,湖南省粮食生产将呈现良好发展态势。因此,应结合湖南实际,综合考虑各因素作用,确保湖南省粮食生产主要发展目标任务如期实现。

In order to understand the momentum of development of grain production ability in Hunan Province during the ＂12th Five-Year Plan＂ and make grain production in Hunan Province do a sustainable development. By using the grey theory, the paper established the model of evaluation on the impact of factors of the development of grain production in Hunan Province and did an evaluation on the impact of main influence factors of the development of grain production in Hunan Province. The results showed that, the order of correlation degree from high to low ranking about seven main factors on total grain yield from the development of grain production in Hunan Province from 2003 to 2010 was： the amount of chemical fertilizer, seeded area, total power of agricultural machinery, effective irrigation area, electricity in rural area, agricultural labors, disaster area. Based on the existing development, the grain production in Hunan Province would show good momentum of development during the ＂12th Five-Year Plan＂. Therefore, it should widely consider various factors by combining with the actual situation of Hunan in order to ensure the main development goals the grain production in Hunan Province as scheduled tasks to achieve.