欠发达县域农村人口空心化影响机制——基于Logistic模型的实证分析

A Research on Influencing Factors of Population Hollowing in Underdeveloped County——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Logistic Model

农村人口特别是青壮年劳动力大量涌入城市,农村中以留守老人、儿童和大龄劳动力为主,这种人口空心化现象对农业和农村造成了一系列的问题。作为一个欠发达国家,研究欠发达地区的人口空心化,对缓解其带来的各种问题具有重要的意义。以安徽省砀山县为例,通过建立Logistic模型,从个人和家庭两个方面具体分析影响农村人口空心化的机制问题,得出年龄、受教育程度和外出务工的预期收益等是影响农村人口流动的显著变量的结论。根据研究结果提出大力发展县域经济、支持乡镇企业、发展特色农业、加大技术培训等建议,力图在一定程度上缓解农村人口空心化问题。

The rural population,especially the young labor forces pouring into the cities,and a lot of Minors;old people and Older labor forces stay in the countryside.This phenomenon finally cause a bad result on agriculture and rural society.As a less developed country,it is play an important role in analyzing on population hollowing in underdeveloped county.Take the Dangshan county of Anhui province for example,this paper analyze the influencing factors of population hollowing in underdeveloped county based on individual features and household characteristics by Logistic Model.And concluded that the age,level of education,per Agricultural net income,per expenditure and expected income and cost when the labor come into the city have the remarkable effect on population movements of rural.Accodding to the conclusion,the paper tables some proposals such as improve the economy growth of the county,develop the enterprises in township and village and specialty agriculture and so on,to ease the problms that population hollowing brings.