一种改进的灰色预测模型在人口预测中的应用

Application of the Improved Grey Model in Population Prediction

城市人口的发展关系着其经济、环境及资源的利用,因此,准确预测未来人口发展趋势及其规模,对制定合理的人口规划具有现实意义.本文以传统的GM(1,1)模型为理论基础,利用对数变换提高数据的光滑度,通过分析方程解的表达式,从背景值和初值两个方面提高模型精度,最后依据银川市2001年—2007年人口数据建立预测模型进行实证研究,结果表明模型预测效果理想.

The development of the urban population is important for the economy,environment and the use of resources.Therefore,predicting the population development trend is meaningful to make rational plan.In this paper,an improved grey model based on the traditional model was built,the smoothness was improved by logarithm transform,the model accuracy from background value and initial value was raised.Finally,the model prediction results was showed to be ideal by the data of yinchuan in 2001-2007.