试论中国的人口转变、结构转型与刘易斯转折点

On Population Transition,Structural Changes and Lewis Turning Point in China

本文对中国社会经济结构转型、经济体制转轨与刘易斯转折点等问题进行了分析。文章以人口转变为主线,提出中国社会经济已跨越了第一个刘易斯转折点,进入了一个全新的发展时期。在这一时期结构转型、人口转变、体制转轨等结构性问题相互重叠、相互交织、相互影响。文章认为,解决中国社会经济的结构性矛盾,加快二元社会经济结构向一元结构转换,其根本途径在于全面推进中国社会经济的体制改革。

This paper analyzes issues such as the structural changes in Chinese society and econ- omy, the trailsition of economic system and Lewis turning point. Based on the population transition, it raises that China, whose society and economy has stepped over the first Lewis turning point, has reached a new development stage. At this stage, the issues such as the structural changes, the population transition and the institutional transition overlap, intertwine and interact. It concludes that to deepen the overall reform of Chinese social and economic system is the key to solving the structural contradiction in Chinese society and economy and speeding up the transforrnation of dual social and economic structures into unitary ones.