中国货币政策目标的实现机理分析:2001-2010

Realization Mechanism of China’s Monetary Policy Targets: 2001—2010

本文对2001—2010年10年间中国货币政策的最终目标和中间目标的实现机理进行了分析探讨,认为10年间尽管发生了3次幅度较高的物价上涨,但它们均非由货币政策较宽松引致。因此,在推进国民经济持续快速发展过程中,中国货币政策有效防止了由于货币发行过多所引致的严重通货膨胀发生;中间目标数量逐步向"新增贷款"等指标收敛,显示了符合中国特色的货币政策调控的中间目标趋于成熟。要进一步完善中国货币政策调控目标需要解决好三方面问题:一是以CPI中的非食品类指数走势为稳定物价和保持币值稳定的基本政策抓手;二是按照交易货币和储藏货币各自的特性,重新调整货币口径;三是逐步将人民币汇率纳入中间目标的调控范畴。

This article explores the realization mechanism for the final and interim targets of China＇ s monetary policy from 2001 to 2010. It finds that the three significant price surges in the ten years were not the results of loose monetary policy. While keeping the rapid economic growth, China avoided the inflation linked with excess money issuance. The introduction of loan increment in the interim targets also showed the maturing of China＇ s monetary policy target system. To improve China＇s monetary operation, three measures need to be taken： firstly, basing stabilizing monetary policy on the trend of non-food price index in CPI; secondly, readjusting the definition of money according to the different characteristics of transaction money and storage money; thirdly, including RMB exchange rates into the interim targets of monetary policy.