央行信息披露、实际干预与通胀预期管理

The Information Disclosure of Central Bank, Actual Intervention and Inflation Expectation Management

近年来,管理通胀预期成为宏观经济调控的重要任务之一。本文采用2001年至2011年的季度数据,利用SVAR模型分析了央行信息披露与实际干预在引导居民通胀预期中的作用和效果。本文研究发现,央行信息披露比传统货币政策工具在引导居民预期方面时滞更短,但利率工具对通胀预期的影响程度从长期来看大于信息披露。因此,本文认为央行在管理通胀预期时,应综合运用信息披露和实际干预工具,进一步提高信息披露的精确性,树立央行良好声誉,使通胀预期在短期和长期内都能得到良好锚定。

Recently, inflation expectation management has become an important task for macroeconomic regulation. Using quarterly data from 2001 to 2011, our paper analyzes the effect of the information disclosure of central bank and actual intervention in managing inflation expectation under the help of struetural VAR model. We find that the information disclosure has shorter time-lag in managing inflation expectation compared with traditional tools of monetary policy, while the impact of interest rate tools is greater than information disclosure in the long term. We believe that central bank should use information disclosure and actual intervention synthetically to manage inflation expectation, improve the accuracy of information disclosure and set up good reputation, so as to anchor the inflation expectations in the short term and the long term.