银行集中度、企业储蓄与经常账户失衡

Bank Concentration, Corporate Savings and Current Account Imbalances

本文基于1990—2007年56个国家的面板数据和1999年世界银行的企业调查数据,运用动态面板模型和Tobit模型,探究了银行集中度、企业储蓄和经常账户失衡的关系。实证结果表明,银行集中度越高,企业从银行融资的比重越小,自身储蓄越高。而公司部门的储蓄与经常账户余额存在显著的正向相关,高银行集中度国家企业的高储蓄导致这些国家经历更大的经常账户顺差(或更小的逆差)。上述结论并不受金融中心效应的影响,也在工具变量回归中保持稳健。与强调金融部门总规模的传统金融发展观不同,本文的结论表明,银行业的内部结构是理解经常账户失衡的重要视角。

Based on the national level panel data about 56 countries in the period of 1990 to 2007 and a World Bank survey dataset about firms＇ financing behaviors in 1999, this paper investigates the relationship among bank concentration, corporate savings and current account imbalances with the utilization of dynamic panel models and Tobit models. The empirical results show that the more concentrated the banking sector is, the less the proportion of firms＇ bank financing is and the more their retained earnings are. Furthermore, savings by corporate sector are significantly correlated with current account imbalances and the high savings in countries with a more concentrated banking sector lead to larger current account surplus or less current account deficits in these countries. Our results remain robust with the consideration of financial center effect and IV regressions. Differing from traditional measurement of financial development which focuses on the overall scale of financial sector, our results highlight the importance of internal structure of banking sector in the understanding of current account imbalances.