基于投人产出分析的中国能源消费分行业碳排放系数因素分解

Factors Decomposition of Energy Carbon Emissions Intensity in China:an Input-Output Analysis

采用投入产出分析法,结合部门能源消费数据,从最终需求的角度评估和计算了中国1997年、2002年和2007年的碳排放量、碳排放系数、直接碳排放系数和完全碳排放系数.研究结果表明,金属冶炼及压延加工业、燃气生产和供应业、非金属矿物制品业、电力、热力的生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业以及煤炭开采和洗选业的直接碳排放系数历年均是最高的,能源强度是影响这些行业直接碳排放系数变化的主要因素;金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业、金属制品业、化学工业、电力、热力的生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业以及煤炭开采和洗选业的完全碳排放系数历年均居前列,中间产品投入和能源强度是影响完全碳排放系数变化的主要因素.针对实证结果,现阶段我国节能减排的重点方向在于调控金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学工业等高碳排放行业,并通过提高能源效率、调整产业结构及优化能源结构来达到降低碳排放系数的目的.

Using input-output analysis, energy consumption carbon emissions, carbon emis- sions intensity, direct carbon emissions coefficients and complete carbon emissions coefficients in China were calculated in 1997, 2002 and 2007. Empirical results showed that the direct carbon emissions coefficients of metal smelting and roiling processing industry, Gas Pro- duction and Supply industry, Non-metallic mineral products industry, Electric Power and Heat Power Production and Supply industry , Water Production and Supply industry and Coal Mining and Washing industry are high, and energy intensity is the main reason. The complete carbon emissions coefficients of metal smelting and rolling processing industry, Non-metallic mineral products industry, fabricated metal products industry, chemical indus- try, Electric Power and Heat Power Production and Supply industry , Water Production and Supply industry and Coal Mining and Washing industry are high, and energy intensity and intermediate input structure are the main reasons. According to the empirical analysis results, corresponding policy suggestions were given as focusing on monitoring these high carbon emissions industries and improving energy efficiency, adjusting industrial structure and optimizing energy mix in order to decrease Chinese energy carbon emissions intensity.