中国“增长极”与“塌陷区”的形成原因与动态演进

Productivity Change and Dynamic Evolution of“Growth Pole”and “Subsidence Area”in China

对传统序列DEA-Malmquist生产率指数中的投入产出指标进行了拓展,纳入了能源消耗的分析框架,将地区生产率的变动分解为＂增长效应＂和＂追赶效应＂两种机制,并结合1980~2008年中国省级地区的面板数据,对地区的增长质量和增长规模进行了核算。结果显示,＂增长效应＂是东部地区发展的第一驱动力,中西部地区与东部地区在改革开放初期存在＂追赶效应＂,但90年代以后技术进步与综合效率比值的双向衰退导致东部＂增长极＂与中西部＂塌陷区＂的形成并加剧了分化。进一步的研究表明,要素投入在中西部＂塌陷区＂存在相当程度的冗余,造成了动态无效。新世纪以来能源对东部地区经济增长贡献率的下降,说明资源约束下东部地区率先向可持续发展模式转变的趋势已经显现。

This study introduces energy consumption into input-output framework of sequential DEA to take sustainable development pattern into account,and also decomposes the regional productivity change into two effects： growth effect and catching-up effect.After constructing the input and output panel data of provinces in China from 1980 to 2008,it estimates both quality improvement and quantity expansion of economic growth in different areas.The main findings of this paper are as follows growth effect plays as the first driving force in eastern area;catching-up effect existed in the first decade of opening-up stage,which vanished since then;both technological progress and comprehensive efficiency have declined when compared to eastern area since 1990s,which induce formation and disparity of＂growth pole＂in eastern area and＂subsidence area＂in middle and western area.After further investigating,it also finds that input redundance in subsidence area has cause dynamic inefficiency;energy consumption has contributed much less to economic growth in eastern area in 21st century,which demonstrates the growth pattern change.