基于情景分析的河北省虚拟水战略环境影响评价

Strategic Environmental Assessment of Virtual Water Based on Scenario Analysis for Hebei Province,China

结合河北省虚拟水贸易情况和虚拟水战略核心内容,提出开展虚拟水战略环境影响评价的必要性、基本步骤和互动评价模式,通过设定粮食进口情景和产业结构调整情景,定量测算和初步探讨了不同情景下实施虚拟水战略对河北省生态环境、水资源消费和经济社会环境的影响,实现自然环境影响评价与社会环境影响评价的有机结合,最后提出不利影响减缓措施,旨在通过事前行动的环境评价寻求最佳战略方案,为河北省虚拟水战略的实施提供理论依据和决策支持。

Hebei sustains a large number of virtual water outputs with scarce water resources and this places pressure on water resources and ecosystems. A virtual water strategy provides a new way to effectively alleviate water resource stress by using the comparative advantages of regional production and adjusting regional industrial structure. In order to prevent adverse effects when developing new strategies it is necessary to carry out environmental impact assessments. Considering food import and industrial structure adjustment, four different scenario were established： scenario A, import 20~,/o of local food production; scenario B, import 40% of local food production; scenario C （steady development）, the proportions of three industries are 10.3%, 48.7% and 41% in 2015, and 8.2%, 45.8% and 46% in 2020; and scenario D （rapid development）, the proportion of three industries is 9.4%, 45.6%, and 45% in 2015, and 8%, 42%, and 50% in 2020. The effect of the virtual water strategy on the ecological environment, water consumption and economic and social environment is calculated and discussed based on scenario analysis. Our results show that food import reduces local agricultural water consumption, and this water could be used for forestation. Food imports effect crops or organisms reliant on high water consumption crops. The implementation of a virtual water strategy requires that grains are purchased to relieve water supply pressures, which results in financial loss to some extent. As far as small-scale production is concerned, food imports may discourage peasants to grow food, and even cause as food safety and social safety issues. In conclusion, virtual water strategies may have a positive and negative influence on the ecological, economic and social environment. Scenario B and C can return 8.76 million ha of farmland to forest and grassland in 2015, which is an appropriate strategy with a positive effect on ecological environment.