安徽省工业行业用水消耗变化分析——基于LMDI分解法

Change in Industrial Water Use in Anhui Province Based on LMDI

进入21世纪以来,安徽省在"工业强省"战略指导下加速推进了工业化进程,工业经济规模快速扩张,随之而来的工业用水消耗快速增长问题日益突出,2002年-2010年期间,安徽省工业用水消耗量增加了22.63亿m3,增长幅度达到了112.4%,这直接影响了安徽省工业经济的可持续发展。针对工业用水消耗问题,采用LMDI法从工业行业经济规模效应、工业行业经济结构效应和工业行业用水定额效应这三个方面分析了2002年-2010年安徽省工业用水消耗变动的情况及影响程度。结果表明:工业行业经济规模因素是驱动安徽省工业用水消耗增加的主要因素,工业行业用水定额因素有效促进了工业用水消耗减少,工业行业经济结构因素也一定程度上抑制了工业用水消耗增加。37个工业行业的经济规模扩张均不同程度造成了用水消耗量增加,各行业经济结构的变化总体上有利于控制用水消耗的增加,绝大多数行业用水定额的降低对控制工业用水消耗增加起到了明显的效果。文章最后结合实证分析结果提出了控制安徽省工业用水消耗快速增长的相关建议。

Water resources are an important strategic resource for social economic development. How to reduce industrial water use has become an urgent issue in China. Alongside rapid economic growth in Anhui province, problems associated with rapid growth in industrial water use have become more prominent. Industrial water use increased 22.63 billion cubic meters in Anhui from 2002 to 2010, and the growth rate reached 112.4%. Here, the method of LMDI was used to analyze changes in industrial water use from 2002 to 2010. Using the LMDI index, change in industrial water use was broken down to the industrial economic total effect, industrial economic structural effect, and industrial water quota effect. We found that the industrial economic scale is a major driver of growth in industrial water use, and an industrial water quota effectively promotes a reduction in industrial water use. Economic expansion across 27 industries is causing an increase in industrial water use. Combining empirical results, several suggestions on reducing industrial water use in Anhui are provided. These include strengthening the control of industrial water use, promoting water-saving innovation, optimization and adjustment of industrial economic structure, and strengthening the management of industrial water quotas in the production and supply of electric power, heat power, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products, and paper and paper products. This research has important significance to industrial water-saving policy and the industrial sustainable development of Anhui.