摘要
抚仙湖为我国第二深水湖泊,为合理开发利用和有效保护抚仙湖水资源、加强湖泊的调度运用控制,在分析气象因子的基础上,采用逐步回归分析法构建了预报模型,寻求影响抚仙湖各月1日蓄水量的主要因子、影响程度及时空分布情况。分析比较结果表明,考虑水温和降水因子的预报模型效果最佳,各月1日蓄水量均受湖水温和降水情况双重影响,最主要的影响因子为降水量因子。
Fuxianhu Lake is the second deep-water lakes in China. For rational development utilization and effective protection of Fuxianhu Lake water resources, strengthening the lake dispatch, operation and control, stcpwise regression analysis method is adopted to establish forecasting model on the basis of meteorological factors analysis. The main fac- tors, degree of influence and space-time distribution which affect the water storage of Fuxianhu Lake in 1st day of each month are found out. The results show that the forecasting model has the best effect when water temperature and rainfall factors are eonsidered; the water storage of Fuxianhu Lake in 1st day of each month is influenced by both of water tem- perature and rainfall factors while the main influencing factor is rainfall.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2012年第12期34-36,33,共4页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
抚仙湖
降水因子
蒸发因子
水温因子
水量
预报模型
Fuxianhu Lakes rainfall factors evaporation factors water temperature factors water yields foreeast model
