基于时间序列分析和灰色理论的建筑物沉降预测模型研究

Research on Building Subsidence Prediction Model Based on Time Series Analysis and Grey Theory

基于时间序列分析方法建立建筑物沉降预测模型,其中通过二次移动平均法提取出沉降监测序列中的趋势项,并在此基础上采用灰色系统理论动态GM(1,1)模型进行趋势项预测。实际算例结果表明,该模型能够较好地预测沉降变化的发展趋势,并具有较高的预测精度,证明了该预测模型具有一定的可行性和有效性。

Based on time series analysis,a building subsidence prediction model is established,in which a double moving average method is used to extract the trend of subsidence monitoring sequence.On this basis,a dynamic GM（1,1） model of a grey system theory is build as a prediction model.An actual example result shows that this model can predict the a developing trend in building subsidence and is highly precision,so the feasibility of this model is supported.