灰色混沌神经元网络模型及其短期人口预测

Gray-Chaos Neural Network Model and Its Application to Short-term Population Prediction

人口问题是一个复杂的社会问题,人口系统是一个复杂的非线性系统。准确地预测湖北省"十二五"人口数量对于制定湖北省国民经济计划和社会发展战略有着深远的意义。本文将灰色PGM(1,N)人口预测模型与混沌神经元网络模型融合,建立了灰色混沌神经元网络人口短期预测模型,实证分析表明,该模型是一种可靠的人口总量短期预测方法,具有一定的实用价值,并对2011～2015年湖北省人口总量进行了预测。

The population problem is a complex social problem, and the population system is a complex nonlinear system. It is of profound significance to accurately predict the population in Hubei province during the Twelfth Five Year Plan which is conduction to national economy and social development strategy. A gray PGM（1,N） combined with chaos neural network model is developed. The empirical analysis shows that the model is a reliable method for total population short-term prediction. At last, the population during about the Twelfth Five Year Plan period in Hubei province is predicted.