中国能源安全评价及时空演进特征

Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Evolution of Energy Security in China

采用近20年能源经济数据,从能源供应稳定性与使用安全性两个方面构建中国能源安全评价模型,借助因子分析、ArcGIS空间分析技术、情景分析方法,对中国能源安全时空演进特征展开研究。结果表明:①近20年来,中国能源安全呈一小一大倒"U"型变化趋势,且目前处于大倒"U"型下降阶段;②3种情景下,区域能源安全时空演进存在明显差异。情景一:区域能源供应稳定形势显著改善,能源供应脆弱区在空间上向"S"型演进,能源供应稳定区在空间上向"Y"型演进;情景二:能源使用安全形势迅速恶化,使用安全与供应稳定性在空间上呈倒置状态;情景三:从2008年中国区域能源安全格局来看,中国区域能源安全区(次强与强区)主要分布在黄河中游、西北、西南和东北地区,而能源安全脆弱区(次弱和弱区)则主要分布在沿海地区。

Based on the energy and economy data from 1990 to 2008, this paper develops a model to evaluate China＇s energy security from both supply and demand perspectives and analyze its spatial-temporal evolution by using factor analysis, ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques and scenario analysis. The results are as follows： 1） National energy security of China shows first a small and then a large inverted ＂U＂-shaped trend during the past 20 years, and is currently at the downward stage of the pattern. 2） The three scenarios for spatial-temporal evolution of regional energy security demonstrate significant differences. Scenario 1 considers only the stability of regional energy supply （a = 1; 13 = 0）. The consequent regional energy security has improved significantly. The evolution of vulnerable regions of energy supply shows an ＂S＂ -shaped pattern, and stable regions shows a ＂Y＂-shaped trend. Scenario 2 considers only the security of energy use （a = 0; [3 = 1）. The consequent regional energy security has deteriorated rapidly. The security of regional energy supply and use are roughly in an inverted state. Scenario 3 prioritizes stability of energy supply than security of energy use （a = 0.9; 13 = 0.1）. The consequent spatial distribution pattern of energy security reveals that regional energy security zones of China （sub-strong and strong area） are mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin, northwestern, southwestern and northeastern parts of China, while vulnerability zones （sub-weak and weak areas） are mainly located in coastal areas.