基于手机基站数据的城市交通流量模拟

Traffic Flow Simulation Based on Call Detail Records

基于移动定位数据的城市内社会经济活动特征分析是人类移动性的重要研究内容,而交通流量更是这些特征的基本反映。为还原城市道路网络的使用情况并分析其分布特征,本文从产生交通流量的个体出发,对包含基站位置的手机话单数据进行系统抽样,利用蒙特卡洛方法产生个体的出行起止点,并结合当地道路交通网络求得最短路径,最后估算出一天内道路交通网络上的流量分布。通过分析发现:城市内大部分道路的流量小,使用率低,大部分交通流量集中在小部分主干道路;进一步统计分析可知,当地道路交通流量符合20/80规律,即大约20%的道路承担着80%的交通流量;而对不同类型的道路,流量分布也反映出其在城市道路网络中的地位和作用。此研究对于历史交通流量分布的重现、城市道路交通模式的研究以及基于此的道路网络规划情景模拟都有着重要意义。

Urban social and economic activity analysis based on mobile location data is a magnificent context for human mobility research and the traffic flow is one of the most basic activities. In order to restore the use of urban transportation network and examine its distribution, we apply a novel approach to draw a traffic flow distribution map of local road network based on a large number of individual cellphone detailed records. We reconstruct details of individual user＇s mobility and generate its traffic flow step by step： 1. Sampling cellphone records from local operator; 2. simulating the random start point and end point for each individual by Monte Carlo; 3. working out its route through the shortest path. After sampling and simulating thousands of records in one day, we finally draw a traffic flow distribution map of local road network, in which we uncover that a large portion of roads contains a small portion of flows and vice versa. In further statistical analysis, we reach the 20/80 principle of traffic flow： 20% of the top roads accommodate 80% of traffic flow. And flow distribution of different road types reflects the function of urban transportation networks. This research make a contribution to the reconstructed historical traffic flow distribution, studies on urban road network pattern and scenario simulation of transportation planning.