基于水量配置模型的江苏省南水北调工程受水区缺水量探讨

A preliminary discussion on water shortage in water-receiving areas in Jiangsu Province in South-to-North Water Diversion Project area based on water allocation model

选取南水北调东线江苏省受水区作为研究区域,根据该区域下垫面具有多样性和降雨分布不均匀的特点,采用水面、水田、旱地和城镇道路4种产流模式模拟研究区产流量;概化受水区规划年(2020年)工业用水户23个;农业用水户92个、生活用水户25个、生态用水户11个和船闸用水户23个;建立研究区需水模型,计算该区域在3种年型下的需水量;初步进行供需水量平衡分析。结果表明:2020规划年遇平水年缺水0.28亿m3;遇一般干旱年缺水0.47亿m3;遇特殊干旱年缺水20.58亿m3。

The water-receiving areas in Jiangsu Province on the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project were taken as the study region.In view of the diversity of the underlying surface of the study area and the uneven distribution of rainfall,we divided the study area into surface water,paddy fields,dry lands,and urban construction lands,and used different runoff-producing simulation models.In 2020,the planning year,water users of the water-receiving areas will be generalized as 23 industrial water users,92 agricultural water users,25 domestic water users,11 ecological water users,and 23 lock water users.A water demand model was established to calculate the water demand of the study area in three different types of years.The balance between water supply and demand was preliminarily analyzed.The results show that there will hardly be any water shortage in 2020,if it is a normal year,and the water shortage will be 47 million m3 if the year is a dry year and 20.58 billion m3 if the year is an extremely dry year.