太湖地区2011年春季严重干旱成因与预测

Causes of a severe drought in spring of 2011 in Taihu Lake area and drought prediction

根据2010—2011年秋冬春3季长江中下游地区发生的历史罕见旱情,以及其持续时间长、影响范围广、干旱程度重等特点,对太湖地区春季旱情进行分析。并在降雨年际变化规律的基础上,采用大气环流、太阳活动、海温状况和区域严重旱灾韵律周期等多种模式进行研究,预测太湖地区干旱灾害。结果表明:2012年是严重干旱灾害暴发的极大值年;干旱灾害的暴发有规律可循,大范围、持续时间长的严重干旱都是在特定的气候背景条件以及大气环流异常情况下发生的。提出太湖地区暖冬影响下"干旱-湿润"周期和78a(34a+44a)严重旱灾韵律周期,进行干旱灾害成因与预测研究。

An unprecedented drought occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the autumn,winter,and spring of the years 2010 and 2011,with characteristics of long duration,wide-ranging impacts,and severity.Based on these characteristics,the drought in the Taihu Lake area in spring was analyzed.The drought disaster in the Taihu Lake area was predicted using multiple models in terms of atmospheric circulation,solar activity,ocean temperature,and rhythmic cycles of severe drought,on the basis of the variation of inter-annual rainfall over the study area.The results show that 2012 will be a year in which the most severe outbreak of droughts takes place.The droughts will occur following certain rules： large-scale and long-duration severe droughts mostly occur in specific climatic conditions and in the case of anomalistic atmospheric circulation.A wet and dry period and a 78-year（34 years and 44 years） rhythm cycle of severe droughts under the influence of a warm winter in the Taihu Lake area are proposed for the study of causes and prediction of drought disaster.