基于VAR的我国房地产宏观调控政策对房地产市场的影响分析

Analysis on the Impact of Real Estate Market Affected by Macro-Control Policies Based on VAR in China

为了平抑房地产市场过热现象,近年我国政府出台了土地、信贷、税收、产业等一系列宏观调控政策。通过构建向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数,分析宏观调控政策对商品房销售面积、房地产投资额、商品房销售价格指数的影响,发现国家宏观调控政策对房地产市场的影响具有一定时滞性和周期性,且对房地产市场的供给和需求两方面的影响具有差异性。政府应当主要采用土地政策和信贷政策适度干预房地产市场的发展。

In order to stabilize the real estate market overheating, in recent years the Chinese government has issued a series of macro - control policies in aspects of land, credit, taxation and industrial. After analyzing the impact of macro - control policies on real estate sales area, real estate investment and real estate sales prices index by constructing a vector au- toregressive model and pulse response function, we found that the impact of real estate market affected by national macro - control policies is delayed and periodic, and that the impact on supply and demand of real estate market affected by national policies is different. The government should primarily use land policy and credit policy to intervene the develop- ment of the real estate market.