山东省肾综合征出血热疫区型别演变及其趋势分析

Study on Endemic Pattern Changes of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Shandong Province and Its Developing Tendency

:为了解山东省自 1962年以来肾综合征出血热 (HFRS)季节发病高峰和疫区型别的演变 ,比较了该省 60年代和 70年代、80年代、90年代疫区型别的变化、秋冬季和春季发病高峰的发病率和病死率变化 ,并对其发展趋势采用灰色模型GM ( 1,1)进行预测。结果表明 :山东省在 60年代和70年代HFRS发病以秋冬季 ( 10月～翌年 1月 )为主 ,其发病数占全年发病数的 89 87% ,病死数占全年的 88 99% ;疫区限于 6个地区 ,疫区型别为姬鼠型。 80年代 ,除秋冬季发病高峰外 ,出现春季 ( 3～ 6月 )发病高峰 ,其发病数和病死数分别占 4 2 78%和 2 1 73 % ;疫区扩大至全省 14个地区 ,疫区型别为姬鼠型和家鼠型的混合型。 90年代情况与 80年代类同 ,春季发病与死亡数分别占全年的 4 3 68%和 37 55% ;疫区型别仍为混合型。预测今后 5年该省HFRS全年、秋冬季和春季发病均呈上升趋势 ,疫区型别为混合型。

This paper studied the endemic pattern changes of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Shandong Province and its developing tendency.Incidence and mortality of HFRS in autumn-winter (Oct. to Jan.) and in spring (Mar.to Jun.) seasons in 1960～1990 were compared, also GM (1, 1) was applied for morbidity forecasting. The results revealed that in 1960s and 1970s HFRS chiefly occurred in autumn-winter seasons,the diseased cases and dead cases accounted for 89.87% and 88.99% of that of the whole year respectively, limiting in 6 endemic areas where only Seoul virus type was found. In 1980s, HFRS additionary occurred in spring season, the diseased cases and the dead cases accounted for 42.78% and 21.73% of that of the whole year respectively, the endemic area expanded to 14 areas where the mixed infection of Hantaan virus and Seoul virus were found. In 1990s, the diseased cases and dead cases were 43.68% and 37.55% of that of the whole year respectively, mixed infection of Hantaan and Seoul virus was found. In the coming 5 years in Shandong Province, the HFRS occurrence in autumn-winter and in spring seasons will display a rising tendency, the mixed infection of both Hantaan and Seoul virus types will still exist. While preventing and controlling the HFRS of Hantaan virus, the Seoul virus infection should also be considered at the same time.