摘要
选取云南省2000—2010年城市化水平与旅游产业对GDP的贡献率两个时间序列数据,对城市化水平与旅游产业发展之间的关系进行了单位根检验、协整关系检验和Granger因果关系检验。结果表明,在样本区间内,旅游产业发展与城市化水平之间存在协整关系,在滞后期为1的情况下,两者之间存在着单向的Granger因果关系,即旅游产业发展对于城市化水平的提高有重要影响作用。在此基础上,结合云南省旅游产业发展的实际情况,分析了导致出现该结果的原因。
Based on the two time series data including the urbanization level and the contribution ratio of tourism industry to GDP from the year 2000 to 2010 in Yunnan, this paper makes unit root test, eointegration test as well as Granger causality test on the relationship between urbanization level and tourism industry development, the result of which shows that within the sample spacing, there exists cointegration relationship between urbanization level and tourism industry development, while there exists one-way Granger causality relationship between them if the lag time is 1, which means tourism industry development strongly influences the enhancement of urbanization level. Combining the tests and findings with the real situation of Yunnan＇s tourism industry, development, the paper analyzes what causes the result.
