灰色-周期外延组合模型在参考作物腾发量预测中的应用

Forecasting of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration by Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model

参考作物腾发量ET0是计算作物需水量、制定灌溉制度和进行水资源优化配置的重要参数之一。因参考作物腾发量随季节性变化,并呈现以年为周期波动的特点;在这种情况下,提出了一种基于灰色GM(1,1)与周期外延相结合的预测模型,即灰色-周期外延组合模型。以沈阳、鞍山、铁岭、盘锦4个地区1997-2006年参考作物腾发量季节值为例进行分析和模拟。结果表明:运用灰色-周期外延组合模型预测参考作物腾发量比原有的GM(1,1)模型预测精度高。该模型预测过程简单,预测结果可靠,适应性强。因此,该模型可广泛的应用于参考作物腾发量的季节预测。

The reference crop evapotranspiration （ETo） is one of the important parameters for calculating crop water requirements, setting up irrigation systems and implementation of optimal allocation of water resources. The reference crop evapotranspiration varies with seasonal changes, and presents an annual cycle fluctuations; in this case, this paper puts forward a method based on gray GM（1,1） model combined with periodic extension prediction model, that is Grey-periodic extensional combinatorial model. The reference crop evapotranspiration values in four regions of Shenyang, Anshan, Tieling, Panjin in 1997-2006 season are analyzed and simulated as examples. The results show that using Grey-periodic extensional combinatorial model to forecast reference crop evapotranspiration is more accurate than the original GM （1,1） model. The predicting process of the model is simple, the results are reliable, and the adaptability is strong. Therefore, the model can be widely used in the seasonal prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration.