中国法定存款准备金政策动机与货币政策效应

The Motivation and Monetary Effects of China's Reserve Requirement Policy

央行通过调整法准率,以较低成本对冲因外汇储备快速增长带来的流动性,有利于实现货币政策调控目标,解决货币政策两难问题。根据本文研究,(1)假定2000年后法准率维持不变,若保持相同的基础货币增速,2011年9月,广义货币增速将达到36.2%,比实际值高23.2个百分点;若要保持相同的广义货币增速,2011年9月,所需的基础货币仅为12.5万亿元,比实际基础货币少8.7万亿元,这对公开市场操作是一个巨大的挑战。(2)短期内银行会降低超储率来应对法准率的上调;但商业银行最终会调整到一个最优的超储率。(3)从趋势看,降低法准率有利于超储率向最优水平恢复,但政策效果体现尚需时间。

The Chinese central bank （PBC） relied more on reserve requirement ratio as a policy tool to with- draw domestic liquidity surpluses, as a cheaper substitute for open - market operation instruments in this period of rapid foreign exchange accumulation. According to our research, （ 1 ） Assuming RRR unchanged since 2000, the growth rate of M2 would be 36. 2 percent on September 2011,23.2 percentage point higher than the actual number. If PBC wanted to keep the same M2 growth, the amount of monetary base needed was 12. 5 trillion RMB, 8.7 trillion lower than the actual, which would be a real challenge for open market operations. （2） In the short run, commercial banks will reduce the excess reserve ratio to cope with the RRR hiking. However, commercial banks will adjust the excess reserve ratio to an optimal level via asset management in the long run. （3） Presently, deceasing RRR is conducive for commercial banks＇ excess reserve ratio to reach the optimal level. But it will take some time to reflect the effect.