中国设备利用率与资本存量的估算

Estimating Capacity Utilization and Capital Stock in China

本文试图结合估算设备利用率和资本存量的两种方法,提出新的估算工具,这个工具包括三个特点:1.在一个方法中估算出设备利用率与资本存量两个指标;2.摆脱了投资平减指数的干扰;3.估算结果使得一些经济指标更加符合现实。首先,本文构建了一个含有微观基础的企业投资模型,通过优化过程,得到了企业设备利用率的定义式、最优设备利用率水平等指标,并且总结出了设备利用率的变化规律以及反推资本存量的公式。然后,通过校准的方法来确定模型中的参数,并且估算出中国的设备利用率和资本存量。最后,运用美国的调查数据对于本文所总结的设备利用率的变化规律进行实证检验。

This paper tries to combine two methods to estimate capacity utilization and capital stock as a new tool. There are three new features about this tool： i） Estimate capacity utilization and capital stock within one method, ii） Get rid of the disturbance of investment deflator, iii） Estimation results can make some macroeco- nomic index more reliable. First of all, the paper built an investment model about firm, which is the micro foundation of our theories. The definition of capacity utilization and optimal capacity utilization, the law of mo- tion of capacity utilization and the estimation equation of capital stock can be concluded through the dynamic op- timization process. Then, estimate capacity utilization and capital stock in China with calibrated parameters in our model. At last, the law of motion of capacity utilization given by this paper is tested empirically by the survey data from U. S. A... Additionally, a hypothesis that under the situation capital stock keeps unchanged, capacity utilization fellows a unit root process is brought forward.