福建高等教育规模与经济增长关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证研究

Relations between Scale of Higher Education and Economic Growth in Fujian

利用福建省1978-2010年每万人口中大学生数和国内生产总值的数据,分析福建省高等教育规模与经济增长之间的动态相关性。建立两者之间的VAR模型,并在此基础上进行脉冲响应分析、方差分析和Granger因果检验。通过分析得出短期内福建省高等教育规模的扩大并不是引起其经济增长的主要原因,高等教育对经济增长的影响主要表现在长期;而福建省的区域经济增长无论是短期内还是长期内都会对其高等教育的发展产生重要的影响。

In this paper, the author established the VAR model between the economic growth and higher education in Fujian province, using the data of the GDP and per 10000 population numbers of undergraduates from 1978 to 2010. Based on the VAR model, the author studied dynamic correlation, using the impulse response function, variance decomposition and Granger causality tests. The results show that the expand of higher education is not the main reason for economic growth in the short-run, the influence of higher education to the economic growth reflects in the long-run; but the growth of economic has an important effect on the development of the higher education both the short-run and the long-run in Fujian province.