我国产业结构演进与成品油消费关系的实证检验

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Industrial Structure Evolution and Refined Oil Consumption

基于中国30个省市2001—2010年产业结构与成品油消费数据构建模型,实证检验了我国产业结构演进与成品油消费之间的相互关系。研究结果显示,产业结构演进对成品油消费具有重要影响,产业结构升级降低了成品油消费需求;第一产业发展对汽油和柴油消费的影响不显著,但对煤油消费的影响具有显著负相关性;第二产业发展对汽油、柴油和煤油消费具有显著正相关性;第三产业发展对汽油和柴油消费具有显著正相关性,而与煤油消费的影响之间为负相关关系;产业结构演进可以缓解资源约束,增强经济可持续发展潜力。

Based on the industrial and refined oil consumption data of 30 provinces in China,this paper constructes model and empirically studies the relationship between industrial structure evolution and refined oil consumption.Research results show that： the industrial structure evolution plays an important role in refined oil consumption;the upgrading of the industrial structure reduces the demand of refined oil consumption;the primary industry has no significant impact on the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil,but negatively correlates with the kerosene consumption;the secondary industry positively correlated with the consumption of gasoline,diesel oil and kerosene;the tertiary industry significantly positively correlates with the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil,but negatively correlated with the consumption of kerosene.Therefore,the industrial structure evolution relieves the constraint of resource and enhances the potential of economic sustainable development.