煤炭价格波动对资源型地区经济发展的影响——基于山西省的实证分析

Coal Price Fluctuation Affected to Economic Development of Resources Type Region——Base on Analysis on Case Verification in Shanxi Province

以山西省1979～2011年相关数据为基础,利用HP滤波方法对煤炭价格与山西省GDP的变动趋势进行了初步研究,并构建状态空间模型,就煤炭价格变动对山西省经济增长的动态影响进行了定量分析。分析结果表明,资源型地区经济增长依赖于煤炭价格的上涨,煤炭价格每上涨1个百分点,将会拉动GDP增长0.8017个百分点。煤炭价格上涨,促进了煤炭行业的繁荣,带动了资源型地区经济的发展。但由于资源型地区过度依赖煤炭价格,加剧了经济增长的波动性,抵御风险的能力脆弱。

Taking the related data of Shanxi Province from 1979 N 2011 as a base, a HP filtration method was applied to the preliminary study on the variation tendency of the coal prices and Shanxi Provincial GDP. A status space model was estab- lished. A quantitative analysis was conducted on the coal price variation dynamically affected to the economic increasing of Shanxi Province. The analysis results showed that the economic increasing of the resource type region would rely on the coal price increasing and one percentage increased of the coal price would make the GDP increased with 0.8017 %. The coal price increased would promote the booming of the coal industry and would drive the economic development of the resources type region. Due to the resources region was too rely on the coal price, the fluctuation of the economic increasing would be enlarged and the capacity to resist the risk would be weak.