国际金融危机后东亚货币合作的区域层次安排——基于OCA指数模型的估算

Regional Level Arrangements of Monetary Cooperation in East Asia after the International Financial Crisis:Based on the OCA Index Model Estimation

国际金融危机后的东亚经济体呈现了不同的经济增长格局,东亚货币合作的区域层次有待重新考察和安排。本文通过构建东亚OCA指数模型,根据OCA指数方程计算了东亚区域在国际金融危机前后的OCA指数,进而分析了国际金融危机后东亚货币合作的区域层次安排。结果表明,近期内,东盟主导东亚货币合作的格局仍将持续;但从长期来看,中国具备主导亚元模式货币合作的潜力。

East Asian countries have took different growth pattern after the U.S. financial crisis, and regional level of monetary cooperation in East Asia needs to be re-arranged and examined. By constructing OCA index model of East Asian, this paper calculates OCA index before and after the financial crisis in that area, analyzes regional level of monetary cooperation arrangements after the U.S. financial crisis. The study shows that currency cooperation will still be led by ASEAN, but in the long run, China has the potential to lead that monetary cooperation with an Asian Yuan model.