政治风险与风险政治——风险的政治学研究传统及新范式建构

Political Risks and Risky Politics: Political Science's traditional approach to risks and the search for new paradigms

政治学相关的风险研究成果之一是对政治风险的研究,主要体现为政治生活中个体政治风险研究、国家政权的政治稳定研究及企业对外投资中的国际政治风险研究等三个方面。这一类型研究只是把风险作为一个外生变量来看待,并没有涉及到风险内部的政治现象和政治机制的探讨,因而并没有涉及到准确意义上风险政治学的基本内容。基于此,以关系理性为理论基础,以势科学作为分析框架,将研究引入风险现象内部,才能真正达到对风险本质的认知。

There are two types of research on risk from a political science point of view. One type focuses on political risks, which include assessing an individual＇s political risks in his/her political life, the evaluation of the political stability of state power, and the risks of domestic enterprises＇ making investments in foreign countries. Strictly speaking, this type of research is irrelevant to scientific studies of risks because it treats political risks as an external variable and does not examine political systems and touch on the political phenomenon intrinsic to risks. Therefore, we argue that only by examining the inside of risks using power？structures as a theoretical base and potential theory as analytical framework can we attain cognition of the true nature of risks.