当前中东北非地区形势与中国石油安全对策

Current situation in the Middle East and North Africa,and China’s oil security countermeasures

考虑到中国对中东北非地区石油资源的依赖,该地区形势的突变势必对中国石油安全形成负面冲击。相关各方在中东北非地区的共同利益决定了该地区石油供给保持稳定的总体形势;相关各方的利益争夺则决定了该地区矛盾冲突的持久性。当前中东北非地区利益格局的变动趋势表现为出口流向深刻变化、反恐战争和"大中东计划"主导地区形势以及美国主导的中东北非地区事务面临新挑战等。根据上述形势,中国应该采取包括加快石油战略储备工程建设、继续实施进口多元化举措、建立中东北非地区油气投资安全预警机制以及加强与印度等主要发展中国家的油气合作等石油安全的对策。

Considering China’s dependence on oil resources from the Middle East and North Africa, the drastic change in the situation in those regions will have a distinctly negative impact on China’s oil security. Stakeholders’ common interests in those regions decide the overall stability of oil supplies from there, while their conflicts of interest decide the overall situation. The current trend of patterns of interest in the Middle East and North Africa is reflected in the profound change of the export flow, a regional situation dominated by anti-terrorism wars and the 'Greater Middle East' program, and new challenges resulting from affairs in the Middle East and North Africa being dominated by the US. In the light of such circumstances, China should take the following countermeasures: speed up its oil strategy reserve project, continue to diversify the sources of its imports, establish an early warning mechanism for investment in oil & gas in the Middle East and North Africa, and enhance cooperation with major developing countries such as India.