不确定条件下碳税政策对北京市能源环境系统影响研究

Impacts of carbon tax policy on Beijing’s energy and environment systems under uncertainty

在考虑碳税政策情景下,构建了北京市能源环境系统规划模型,分析了碳税政策对北京市能源环境系统的影响.结果表明,到2020年北京市煤炭的用量将压减到[921.7,1000]万t标准煤;相反,天然气和电力的使用量将分别增加到[2000.7,2089.3]万t标准煤和[1950.3,2183.8]万t标准煤;此外,本研究还分析了碳税政策对CO2及大气污染物(SO2、NOx和PM10)的排放变化情况.到2020年碳税情境下的结果较无碳税情境下的相比,CO2的减排比例达到[9.0,11]%,SO2、NOx和PM10的协同减排比例分别达到[9.0,11]%,[19,31]%和[19,20]%.

Considering the carbon tax policy,an energy and environmental systems planning model in Beijing was developed,which was useful to analyse the impacts of carbon tax policy on Beijing City’s energy and environment systems.The results indicated that the supply amount of coal would cut to [921.7,1000] tce in Beijing by 2020 year;on the contrary,the supply amount of natural gas and electricity would increase to [2000.7,2089.3] and [1950.3,2183.8] tce.Addition,the emission changes of CO2and atmospheric pollutants（SO2,NOxand PM10） were also analyzed under carbon tax policy.The results showed that the reduction ratio of CO2 was [9.0,11]% and,the synergistic reduction ratio of SO2,NOxand PM10were [9.0,11]%,[19,31]% and[19,20]%,respectively.