基于投入产出表的结构变迁与知识服务业发展研究

Structure Change and the Development of Knowledge-based Services: International Comparison Based on the Input-output Table

选取OECD 7个发达国家作为研究对象,利用投入产出中的结构分解分析法对20世纪90年代至今7国产业结构变动的驱动因素进行了国际比较,以期对处于转型期的中国经济发展起到一定的启示作用。研究发现,过去10多年经济增长部分主要来源于消费增长,投资和贸易所起的作用较弱;服务业比重提升是因为其产出增速高于制造业;服务业的增长主要来自国内消费和技术的拉动;知识服务业的增长主要源于中间服务需求的提升;由于知识服务业具有知识和技术密集等特性,技术进步的产出效应在知识服务业的表现最为明显。

Using international input-output data （from 1990 to 2005）, the paper tries to quantifies the impact of technology in structure change so as to give some enlightenments to China. It makes the decomposition analysis which separates the quantitative impact of demand, technology and trade-driv en determinants of output growth. The findings of the research are as following： i） the economic growth of the past decade mainly was derived from the consumption growth; ii） the growing ratio of services is just the result of rapid growth of services; iii） the output growth of services industry is driven by domestic consumption and technology; iv） the output growth of knowledge-based services is driven by growing intermediate demand and v） the impact of technology is most prominent in knowl edge-based services.