基于计量地理模型的浙闽两省茶叶生产态势比较

Tea Production Trend Comparison Based on Quantitative Geography Model between Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces

基于浙闽两省2000年～2010年茶叶种植面积、产量、产值等统计数据的分析,运用计量地理统计模型变异系数和时间序列分析法研究浙闽两省茶叶生产变化的状态,预测浙闽两省茶叶生产发展趋势。结果表明:两省茶叶产值增长幅度最大,产量其次,面积增长幅度最小;福建省茶叶种植面积、产量、产值的增长幅度均大于浙江省;浙闽两省茶叶产值随时间逐年增长,福建省茶叶产值现状小于浙江省,但增长趋势大于浙江省。研究认为,浙闽两省应进一步发挥人才、技术、文化和区位优势,加快产业转型升级,推动茶产业、茶经济、茶文化健康协调可持续发展,为把中国建设成为世界茶叶生产、加工、贸易与文化中心,作出巨大贡献。

Based on statistical data analysis of tea planting areas,output,output value and other statistics of tea planting in Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces from 2000 to 2010,the thesis employs coefficient of variation analysis of quantitative geography statistical model to study the changing state of tea production in Zhejiang and Fujian provinces,and the time series analysis to predict the trends of the two provinces’ tea production,and results show that： 1） The growth degree of tea output value in the two provinces ranks first,the output second,and the growth degree of the planting areas minimal;2） the growth degree of tea planting areas,output and output value in Fujian are greater than that in Zhejiang;3） the tea output value in both Zhejiang and Fujian grows year by year;4） tea output value in Fujian is less than that in Zhejiang at present,but the growth trend is greater than that in Zhejiang.The research indicated that Zhejiang and Fujian provinces should take further advantage of talents,technology,culture and location to speed up the transformation and upgrading of industries,to promote the tea industry,tea economy and tea culture to a healthy,harmonious and sustainable development,making a significant contribution to the cause of building China into the world’s center of tea-producing,tea-processing,tea trade and tea culture.