碳汇经营目标下的林地期望价值变化及碳供给——基于杉木裸地造林假设研究

Change of Forestland Expected Value and Carbon Supply in the Objective of Carbon Sequestration:Based on the Chinese Fir Plantation in Bared Land

当今全球气候变化问题已成为世界各国面临的最重大挑战之一,森林生态系统是全球碳循环重要组成部分,研究表明通过森林固碳方式来减缓碳释放不仅潜力巨大,而且具明显的成本优势（van Kooten et al.,1995;Murry,2000;Benítez et al.,2004）。因此,通过林业活动增加森林碳汇（减缓碳释放）是应对气候变化的重要途径。

Increase in forest carbon sinks is widely accepted as an important measure for reducing climate change.In this paper,a growth model of Chinese fir,and the Faustmann model of carbon density and price were used to comparatively analyze the optimal rotation age and forestland expectation value of the traditional timber management and the combined timber and carbon management.The empirical data was collected from the Changhua Forest Farm in Zhejiang Province.A sensitivity analysis was conducted with different interest rates and carbon prices,and the carbon supply curve was developed.It was found that the optimal rotation of Chinese fir in the joint management did not changed due to the fact that timber price was much higher than carbon price,suggesting that carbon supply for current forestland would not increase significantly within a large range change of carbon price.However,in terms of rapid increase in expectation value of the Chinese fir forestland with the carbon management model,carbon sink of the woodland has a huge potential investment value,which also suggests that forest carbon sinks may have a huge impact for the land-use change.