水驱油田新型含水率预测模型研究

Study on new forecasting model of water cut in water-flood reservoirs

目前的含水率预测模型均是引用信息、经济等其他领域的相关增长数学模型,而在国内外石油科技论文中并未见到有关含水率预测模型的理论推导,因此目前的含水率预测模型缺乏理论依据,对相关参数物理内涵的解释也不清晰。该文针对上述问题,从相对渗透率曲线和物质平衡原理出发,推导出新型含水率预测模型。新型含水率预测模型揭示了含水上升规律相应影响因素和影响规律,结合胜坨油田实际生产资料验证了新模型的实用性和有效性,且精度高于常用的Logistic模型及Goempertz模型。该文对含水上升规律的深层次理论研究具有一定的参考价值,并给矿场实际生产调剖堵水和化学驱等控水措施方面提供了相关理论依据。

At present, the forecasting model of water cut is quoted from other aspect, such as information and economic discipline. The theoretical derivation of water cut forecasting model wasn＇t found until now, which results in that some parameters in the equations can＇t be explained clearly. The new water cut forecasting model was derived based on relative permeability and material balance theory. Ignoring some factors, the common Logistic model can be got. The efficiency and validity of the model were proved in Shengtuo Oil Field. In the practical production process, the new water cut forecasting model can be used to provide suggestion to control the water cut increasing quickly.